The Math Behind Expected Value (EV) at Sweepstakes Casinos

Explained Simply

Intro: Understanding EV is the fastest way to decide whether a sweepstakes casino offer is worth buying. Since SC has a fixed redeemable value, the only real variable is how efficiently you convert purchased SC into cashable SC. This guide breaks down the math in a simple, practical way.

What Expected Value (EV) Actually Means

Expected Value tells you the average amount of SC you should end up with after washing an offer. The formula is straightforward:

EV = Total SC × RTP

If you receive 100 SC and wash it at 94% RTP, the long-term average outcome is:

100 × 0.94 = 94 SC

EV doesn’t predict a single session—it predicts your long-term average over many washes.

Why EV Works with Sweepstakes Casinos

SC has a fixed redeemable value. If you buy an offer where the SC value is higher than what you paid, the wash converts that SC into cashable SC. Your goal isn’t to “win” a jackpot—your goal is to retain as much SC as possible through a controlled wash. EV tells you how much you should expect to retain.

The 10% Rule

Before running any math, apply a simple filter: the offer must give at least 10% more SC than its cost.

Example: If an offer costs $50, it should give ≥55 SC.

This buffer protects you from variance during the wash. Anything below this threshold typically loses money even at high RTP.

EV Example (Simple Math)

Consider an offer:

• Cost: $75
• SC Received: 95
• RTP Range: 90%–95%

EV at 90% RTP: 95 × 0.90 = 85.5 SC
EV at 95% RTP: 95 × 0.95 = 90.25 SC

This range shows what you can reasonably expect to end the wash with. If EV is higher than cost, the offer is likely profitable; if it’s equal, test only; if it’s below cost, skip.

Understanding Variance

RTP averages out over time, not over one session. A single wash may end above or below the expected range. Variance is controlled by:

• Low or medium-risk Plinko settings
• Small stakes relative to bankroll
• High drop counts to smooth volatility

This keeps swings manageable and keeps the wash predictable.

Why EV Matters More Than Luck

Washing isn’t gambling for entertainment—it’s conversion. You’re turning promotional SC into cashable SC. EV gives you the discipline to skip negative-value offers, test borderline ones, and buy only when the math makes sense. This approach keeps your results consistent and prevents emotional decisions.

Takeaway

EV is the core tool for evaluating sweepstakes offers. Apply the 10% rule, run the EV math, and wash with controlled settings. This framework lets you make rational decisions and maintain long-term profitability.

Want more deal breakdowns, EV calculations, and real wash results? Follow my full journey on the Journey & Links page. I update it every time I test a new offer, run a wash, or cash out—so you can see what actually works.

Sweepstakes casinos are free-to-play promotions. No purchase necessary. 18+. Results vary; not financial advice.